Oby Ezekwesili caused quite a stir on Sunday on Abuja streets.
Even as the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP
continued to trade insults days after individually presenting their election
manifestos ahead of what promises to be a grudge “rematch” in 2019, the
presidential candidate of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria opted
to share pamphlets to folks gathered probably more out of curiosity than
solidarity.
In her own estimation, that roadshow should suffice as answer
to the growing taunts that she is bidding for the highest office in
the land without a structure. So, the street campaign strategy is to make up
for her obviously lean pocket for the campaign in the countdown to the
elections due in roughly 80 days.
Hear her rather simplistic argument: “What we’re doing is
distribution (of booklets and leaflets), because a lot of people do
say, ‘Where is your structure?’.”
As if choreographed, two major national dailies - THISDAY and
Guardian - also published her extensive interviews same day.
While Oby’s commitment to save Nigeria has never been in doubt
and her courage to step forward now and bid for power must be saluted, she
cannot evade the reality check.
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| ODION |
With the confidence she pontificated, we are tempted to suspect
Oby might have been burning the midnight candle understudying the Lula model.
The man who had barged onto Brazil’s political scene in the the first decade of
this millennium similarly came empty-handed. Lula da Silva also started by
sharing leaflets at city squares with the stalking tenacity of the proverbial
Jehovah Witness in Nigerian speak.
Before the existing right-leaning political establishment knew
it, he had captured the people’s imagination sufficiently to win the
presidency. Between 2003 and 2010, he would inspire a populist fairytale never
seen in the history of the Latin American country.
However, the pretender thinking the Lula formula could
easily be transposed to Nigeria today is hardly prepared to answer one hard
question: do they have a ready critical mass behind them like the fanatical
labour movement that enforced Lula’s victory back in Brazil in 2003?
Without wishing to dampen the spirit of the likes of Oby who I
am sure are getting involved for purely altruistic reason, the bitter truth is
that they stand no fighting chance with the prevailing national leadership
recruitment process. Only those who had run for presidency before and got
thoroughly squeezed are perhaps best placed to attest that the arena is
certainly not for those with modest means or where you count on luck instead of
commonsense.
How utterly naive of Oby then to downplay the challenge of
election day. Were the motive behind her current exertion the mere thrill of
participation or the symbolism, such characterization could be pardonable. But
if indeed it is to capture power, then more rigour is certainly required.
While it may be possible now to leverage modern tools like
social media to minimize spend on publicity which would have been
prohibitive in the old media, the zestful presidential candidate will
sooner than later find that the first real acid test actually awaits them on
the eve of election: where to recruit incorruptible agents and how to mobilize
such foot soldiers to defend their interest at each of the well over
100,000 polling stations located in the 774 councils across the 36 states of
the federation and the Federal Capital Territory. That outing alone requires
billions of naira.
Of course, that is always the first fortification against being
rigged out.
While the novelty of card reader in 2015 and the promise of
electronic transmission of results by INEC this time will alter the character
of tabulation and summation from what we are used to, nothing suggests a change
yet in the human factor - the siege by those representing potentially the 91
political parties in the contest.
In reality, the party agent constitutes the first line of
defence on Election Day. It is at this point the more established parties bring
their weight to bear through sharp practice referred to as “Cooperative Society”.
Once the agents of “lesser” parties are compromised, the field is cleared for
the dominant ones to manipulate the results to
favour their paymaster, but not without the active collaboration of
unscrupulous presiding electoral officials.
Of course, once you are not captured in the results originated
from the polling station, it is needless attending the collation centre
thereafter, unless as spectator or “election monitor”.
This is the stark reality at the moment. It probably explains
why the variable of personal popularity had always counted for little or less
in electoral transactions in the country till date.
Indeed, if national visibility, demonstrable credibility and
articulation of a seductive vision are all it requires to win the presidency, immensely
popular and articulate Gani Fewehinmi would have easily won in 2003 on the
platform of National Conscience Party. Popular journalist, Dele Momodu,
similarly put up a brave fight for the presidency in 2011, framing
Obama-style messages targeting mainly the nation’s millennials. But at the end,
he had bitter tales to share, including being swindled of his cash by some
sharks in one of the very parties he associated with.
Given the referenced institutional barrier, one therefore shares
the view that it would perhaps have been more prudent if folks like Oby had
chosen to fish in little political river with better prospects of victory
rather than spreading their scant net too thin in the vast ocean without hope.
For instance, what would have stopped her from scaling down by contesting the
chairmanship of Abuja Municipal Authority where her vision of the good society
can be pursued with a view to making it an island of success and the progress
made easily measurable along the journey?
On the other hand, Yele Sowore would make a great senator. It
is a lot surer to put a bet on him for the senate or Reps had he
sought to parlay his cult-following among the student population to,
say, seeking to represent the mainland in Lagos on the platform of debutant African
Action Congress with huge campuses at UNILAG, YABATECH and LASPOTECH.
Needless to stress that true visionary doesn’t always have to
insist on capturing federal power to bring about the progress our
society badly needs. The lowly placed counselor who keeps faith with the oath
of office is, let it be said, already advancing their community in their own
little way. It is when such islands of exception are aggregated that we can
then aspire to evolve the archipelago of redemption for the country futuristically.
That miracle is however not likely to happen in one or two
election seasons. In fact, the first real test is knowing how to judiciously
invest limited political capital to make maximum impact.
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